OP0054 REDUCING THE BURDEN OF LOW BACK PAIN: RESULTS FROM A NEW MICROSIMULATION MODEL

Background Low back pain (LBP) has been the leading cause of disability worldwide for past 30 years. In 2019, LBP was responsible 64 million years lived with (YLDs) [1]. Objectives The purpose present study to project and compare impact three strategies reducing population health burden LBP: weight loss, ergonomic interventions, an exercise program. Methods We have developed a microsimulation model in Canada using novel simulation platform, SimYouLate. initial derived from Cycle 1 (2001) Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). modeled open 20 age older. Key variables included age, sex, education, body mass index (BMI), type work, having problem, level persons problems, exercise. effects interventions on risk were obtained CCHS effect BMI, Global Burden Disease Study occupational risks, published meta-analysis All lasted 2021 2040. Strength varied over wide range. YLDs defined as prevalence multiplied by weight. calculated difference between base-case scenario each intervention expressed averted per unit % total LBP-related YLDs. Results scenario, 2020 424,900 amount increased 460,312 follows: 27,993 (95% CI 23,373, 32,614) 0.1 change log-transformed BMI (10.5% BMI) among overweight obese individuals, 19,416 (16,275, 22,557) 1% reduction proportion workers exposed 26,058 (22,455, 29,661) increase eligible patients problems participating Table shows Figure YLD-equivalence interventions. A one year individuals would be approximately equivalent terms effective 35% at-risk 27% same period (Figure 1). 1. 2040 YLDs, according level, aged 20+ Intervention Effect (%) 95% LCL UCL Reduction 1.4 -1.4 4.1 0.3 4.8 2.2 7.3 0.5 6.3 3.9 8.8 1.0 8.5 6.0 11.0 3.0 11.9 9.4 14.4 5.0 13.5 10.9 16.0 exposure 20% 5.2 1.9 40% 9.5 6.4 12.7 60% 13.8 10.6 16.9 80% 18.1 14.8 21.4 100% 22.4 18.8 25.9 Increase participation 6.6 2.8 10.4 12.4 8.7 14.5 21.7 23.9 20.1 27.6 29.6 25.5 33.7 LCL: lower confidence limit. UCL: upper Equivalence their Each point represents specific number averted. Values y-axis show at exercising that are required achieve corresponding shown x-axis. Conclusion This is first population-based currently available preventive provide measures equivalence these strategies. References [1]Hartvigsen J, Hancock MJ, Kongsted A, et al. What low why we need pay attention. Lancet 2018;391(10137):2356-2367. Acknowledgements supported grant Institutes Research (FRN 142440). Disclosure Interests None declared.